Kevin Warsh

Low-angle view of a stone government building facade with tall windows, an American flag and broad stone steps.

The October Hike Trade Just Died: 70% to 14% in Four Days, and Bitcoin Still Couldn't Hold $87,000

$87,152 Intraday. $84,501 at the Close. Just 29,000 jobs helped finish a four-day collapse in October hike odds from 70% to roughly 13–14%. Bitcoin reached $87,152 on October 2, then closed at $84,501. The policy obstacle shrank. The rally vanished. Why? September’s ETF buying had nearly stopped, leverage had built before payrolls, and long-term Treasury yields remained punishingly high. A softer Fed outlook could remove a threat without supplying the next buyer. ...

Multiple trading screens showing stock market charts and price data, the rails the SEC opened for tokenized equities on September 17

SEC Innovation Exemption: Washington Killed the CLARITY Act, Then Built the On-Ramp Itself — Why Bitcoin Is Back Above $80K

On Sept 15 the Senate voted 49–50 to deny cloture on the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633). Sixty votes were required. The market-structure bill that the entire US crypto industry spent three years lobbying for is dead on this floor. Forty-eight hours later, on Sept 17, the SEC issued the Innovation Exemption. On Sept 18, Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 — trading around $80,822, up 5.5% in 24 hours inside a $76,205–$80,944 range (CoinGecko). ...

A candlestick chart on a trading screen with a horizontal support line drawn across it, marking the level that decides the next move after the Federal Reserve hike

Day One After the Fed: $520M Left the ETFs While Whales Bought 200,000 ETH — and $76,700 Is the Line That Decides What Happens Next

Two prints landed on the same afternoon and they cannot both be right. $520 million walked out of US spot crypto ETFs on Sept 16. On that same day, wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH bought roughly 200,000 ETH. One side of this market is leaving. The other is buying size into the exit. That is the entire setup. The ETF complex is a rent-a-coin wrapper that US desks rotate in and out of on a schedule. The wallets that moved 200,000 ETH are not on a schedule. And sitting right between them is a single price level that has nothing to do with either flow: $76,700. ...

A bright candlestick trading chart on a screen, showing the volatility that followed the first Federal Reserve rate hike since 2023

First Fed Hike Since 2023, Unanimous — Bitcoin Shrugged at −0.31% While Ether Got Slashed 4.70%, and $671M of Leverage Is Already Gone

One unanimous vote. One quarter point. And the market that half the timeline swore would crack did not crack — Bitcoin printed −0.31% while Ethereum got cut −4.70% in the exact same session. That split is the whole story of this week, and it is why what just opened looks nothing like the panic the headline count is selling you. The forced sellers already did their work. What is left on the screen is a repriced market with a rulebook being written in real time — and a very short list of assets that held. ...